Aspectos globales de la epidemiología y de la toma de decisiones en la pandemia por COVID-19

  • H. Vargas-Uricoechea Universidad del Cauca, Popayán
  • H. Vargas-Sierra Universidad del Cauca, Popayán

Resumen

La pandemia actual desencadenada por el SARS-CoV-2/ COVID-19 ha puesto a prueba la capacidad de respuesta de los diferentes sistemas de salud en el mundo. Las pandemias han acompañado al ser humano desde sus orígenes; sin embargo, mucha incertidumbre surge a partir de preguntas acerca de los diferentes escenarios que pueden presentarse durante el curso de la pandemia o posterior a ella. En esta revisión se abordan los aspectos epidemiológicos globales de la COVID-19 y de las probables consecuencias de las diferentes estrategias desde el punto de vista de la salud pública.

##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##

##plugins.generic.usageStats.noStats##

Biografía del autor

##submission.authorWithAffiliation##

Médico especialista en Medicina Interna y Endocrinología. MSc en Epidemiología. PhDc en Ciencias Biomédicas. Director, Grupo de Investigación en Enfermedades Metabólicas, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Universidad del Cauca, Popayán, Colombia.

##submission.authorWithAffiliation##

Médico, Programa de Posgrado en Medicina Interna, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Facultad Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad del Cauca, Popayán, Colombia. 

Citas

1. Wu F, Zhao S, Yu B, Chen YM, Wang W, Song ZG, et al. A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China. Nature. 2020;579(7798):265-9. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3.
2. Wu F, Zhao S, Yu B, Chen YM, Wang W, Song ZG, et al. Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome. 23 de enero de 2020 [citado 09 de mayo de 2020]; Disponible en: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN908947.3.
3. World Health Organization. Disease outbreaks by year [Internet]. Citado abril 19 de 2020. Disponibles en: https://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/year/en/.
4. Graham RL, Baric RS. SARS-CoV-2: Combating Coronavirus Emergence. Immunity. 2020;52(5):734-6. doi: 10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.016.
5. Wu J, Huang Y, Tu C, Bi C, Chen Z, Luo L, et al. Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2, Zhuhai, China, 2020. Clin Infect Dis. 2020;ciaa557. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa557.
6. Li Y, Wang J, Wang C, Yang Q, Xu Y, Xu J, et al. Characteristics of respiratory virus infection during the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus in Beijing. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;96:266-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.008.
7. Liu YC, Kuo RL, Shih SR. COVID-19: The First Documented Coronavirus Pandemic in History. Biomed J. 2020;S2319-4170(20)30044-5. doi: 10.1016/j.bj.2020.04.007.
8. Chang CL, McAleer M. Alternative Global Health Security Indexes for Risk Analysis of COVID-19. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(9)E3161. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17093161.
9. World Health Organization. Coronavirus [Internet]. [Citado 01 de mayo de 2020]. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus.
10. World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports [Internet]. [Citado 10 de mayo de 2020]. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports.
11. Paules CI, Marston HD, Fauci AS. Coronavirus Infections -- More Than Just the Common Cold. JAMA. 2020. doi: 10.1001/jama.2020.0757.
12. Cyranoski D. Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus. Nature. 2020;579(7797):18-9. doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-00548-w.
13. Lai CC, Wang CY, Wang YH, Hsueh SC, Ko WC, Hsueh PR. Global epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): disease incidence, daily cumulative index, mortality, and their association with country healthcare resources and economic status. Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2020;55(4):105946. doi: 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105946.
14. Wang K, Zuo P, Liu Y, Zhang M, Zhao X, Xie S, et al. Clinical and laboratory predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19: a cohort study in Wuhan, China. Clin Infect Dis. 2020;ciaa538. doi: 10.1093/cid/ ciaa538.
15. Yu X, Sun X, Cui P, Pan H, Lin S, Han R, et al. Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of 333 Confirmed Cases with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Shanghai, China. Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13604.
16. Back D, Marzolini C, Hodge C, Marra F, Boyle A, Gibbons S, et al. COVID-19 treatment in patients with comorbidities: Awareness of drug-drug interactions. Br J Clin Pharmacol. 2020. doi: 10.1111/bcp.14358.
17. Roser M, Ritchie H, Ortiz-Ospina E, Hasell J. Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19). [citado 3 de junio de 2020]. Disponible en: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus.
18. LePan N. Visualizing the History of Pandemics [Internet]. [Citado 07 de mayo de 2020]. Disponible en: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/.
19. Erduran S. Science Education in the Era of a Pandemic: How Can History, Philosophy and Sociology of Science Contribute to Education for Understanding and Solving the Covid-19 Crisis? Sci Educ (Dordr). 2020:1-3. doi: 10.1007/s11191-020-00122-w.
20. Hunter P. The spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus: Health agencies worldwide prepare for the seemingly inevitability of the COVID-19 coronavirus becoming endemic. EMBO Rep. 2020;21(4):e50334. doi: 10.15252/ embr.202050334.
21. Graham BS, Corbett KS. Prototype pathogen approach for pandemic preparedness: world on fire. J Clin Invest. 2020;139601. doi: 10.1172/ JCI139601.
22. Yuen KS, Ye ZW, Fung SY, Chan CP, Jin DY. SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: The most important research questions. Cell Biosci. 2020;10:40. doi: 10.1186/ s13578-020-00404-4.
23. Li H, Liu SM, Yu XH, Tang SL, Tang CK. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Current status and future perspectives. Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2020;55(5):105951. doi: 10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105951.
24. Najafimehr H, Mohamed Ali K, Safari S, Yousefifard M, Hosseini M. Estimation of basic reproduction number for COVID-19 and the reasons for its differences. Int J Clin Pract. 2020. doi: 10.1111/ijcp.13518.
25. Akin L, Gözel MG. Understanding dynamics of pandemics. Turk J Med Sci. 2020;50(SI-1):515-9. doi: 10.3906/sag-2004-133.
26. Rosenberg ES, Dufort EM, Blog DS, Hall EW, Hoefer D, Backenson BP, et al. COVID-19 Testing, Epidemic Features, Hospital Outcomes, and Household Prevalence, New York State-March 2020. Clin Infect Dis. 2020;ciaa549. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa549.
27. Ahn DG, Shin HJ, Kim MH, Lee S, Kim HS, Myoung J, et al. Current Status of Epidemiology, Diagnosis, Therapeutics, and Vaccines for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). J Microbiol Biotechnol. 2020;30(3):313-24. doi: 10.4014/jmb.2003.03011.
28. Yin S, Peng Y, Ren Y, Hu M, Tang L, Xiang Z, et al. The implications of preliminary screening and diagnosis: Clinical characteristics of 33 mild patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hunan, China. J Clin Virol. 2020;128:104397. doi: 10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104397.
29. Eberhardt JN, Breuckmann NP, Eberhardt CS. Multi-Stage Group Testing Improves Efficiency of Large-Scale COVID-19 Screening. J Clin Virol. 2020;128:104382. doi: 10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104382.
30. Mi YN, Huang TT, Zhang JX, Qin Q, Gong YX, Liu SY, et al. Estimating instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;S1201- 9712(20)30271-X. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.055.
31. Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Imai N, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;S1473-3099(20)30243-7. doi: 10.1016/S1473- 3099(20)30243-7.
32. Manski CF, Molinari F. Estimating the COVID-19 infection rate: Anatomy of an inference problem. J Econom. 2020. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.04.041.
33. Medeiros de Figueiredo A, Daponte A, Moreira Marculino de Figueiredo DC, Gil-García E, Kalache A. [Case fatality rate of COVID-19: absence of epidemiological pattern]. Gac Sanit. 2020;S0213-9111(20)30084-4. doi: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.04.001.
34. Riou J, Hauser A, Counotte MJ, Althaus CL. Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020. medRxiv. 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.0 4.20031104.
35. Viceconte G, Petrosillo N. COVID-19 R0: Magic number or conundrum? Infect Dis Rep. 2020;12(1):8516. doi: 10.4081/idr.2020.8516.
36. Hens N, Vranck P, Molenberghs G. The COVID-19 epidemic, its mortality, and the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc Care. 2020;2048872620924922. doi: 10.1177/2048872620924922.
37. Kucharski AJ, Russell TW, Diamond C, Liu Y, Edmunds J, Funk S, et al. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group. Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;20(5):553-8. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4.
38. Yan Y, Shin WI, Pang YX, Meng Y, Lai J, You C, et al. The First 75 Days of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak: Recent Advances, Prevention, and Treatment. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(7):E2323. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17072323.
39. Roda WC, Varughese MB, Han D, Li MY. Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic? Infect Dis Model. 2020;5:271-81. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.001.
40. Panovska-Griffiths J. Can mathematical modelling solve the current Covid-19 crisis? BMC Public Health. 2020;20(1):551. doi: 10.1186/ s12889-020-08671-z.
41. Vargas-Uricoechea H. COVID-19 en Colombia e inmunidad de rebaño: ¿es momento de considerarla? Rev Colomb Endocr Diabetes Metab. 2020;7(1):57-9.
42. Ye Q, Wang B, Mao J, Fu J, Shang S, Shu Q, et al. Epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 and practical experience from China. J Med Virol. 2020. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25813.
43. Lewnard JA, Lo NC. Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020. doi: 10.1016/S1473- 3099(20)30190-0.
44. Logie CH, Turan JM. How Do We Balance Tensions Between COVID-19 Public Health Responses and Stigma Mitigation? Learning from HIV Research. AIDS Behav. 2020;1-4. doi: 10.1007/s10461-020-02856-8.
45. West R, Michie S, Rubin GJ, Amlôt R. Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Nat Hum Behav. 2020;4(5):451-9. doi: 10.1038/s41562-020-0887-9.
46. Jarvis CI, Van Zandvoort K, Gimma A, Prem K; CMMID COVID-19 working group; Klepac P, et al. Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK. BMC Med. 2020;18(1):124. doi: 10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8.
47. Lai S, Ruktanonchai NW, Zhou L, Prosper O, Luo W, Floyd JR, et al. Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China. Nature. 2020. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2293-x.
48. Petersen E, Wasserman S, Lee SS, Go U, Holmes AH, Al Abri S, et al. COVID19-We urgently need to start developing an exit strategy. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;96:233-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.035.
49. Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. COVID-19: The CIDRAP Viewpoint [Internet]. [Citado 12 de mayo de 2020]. https://bit.ly/3cbDqNW.
50. Begley S. Three potential futures for Covid-19: recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave, or a persistent crisis [Internet]. [Citado 12 de mayo de 2020]. Disponible en: https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/threepotential-futures-for-covid-19/.
51. Glenn J. COVID-19 [Internet]. The Millennium Project. Global Studies & Research. [Citado 12 de mayo de 2020]. Disponible en: http://www.millennium-project.org/covid-19/.
Publicado
2020-07-01
##submission.howToCite##
VARGAS-URICOECHEA, H.; VARGAS-SIERRA, H.. Aspectos globales de la epidemiología y de la toma de decisiones en la pandemia por COVID-19. Revista Colombiana de Endocrinología, Diabetes & Metabolismo, [S.l.], v. 7, n. 2S, p. 43-54, jul. 2020. ISSN 2389-9786. Disponible en: <http://revistaendocrino.org/index.php/rcedm/article/view/583>. Fecha de acceso: 11 ago. 2020